Start a fire – but not destroy the market with it. That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”), in the end, the survivors make a profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep. At the beginning of this decade, we saw the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from the serious to the ephemeral. These days, Robinhood looks like one giant bonfire of young people’s money. The concept of gamification was real, and the investor exodus was tumultuous—resulting in ridiculous self-immolations of GameStop ( GME ), AMC Entertainment ( AMC ), and meme stocks. Those fighting the trend have left Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from angry mobs trying to wildly outsell sellers. None of these clowns. Then there was a bigger scam than expected for cryptocurrency. The people who buy it have somehow twisted their brains into something they don’t understand. As a result, they spilled their brains and gave them to others who claimed to know more than they did. You should have stood up to a phalanx of loudmouthed, self-promoting scoundrels and their fintech allies in government and venture capital – all of whom should be ashamed, but shame eludes them. They won’t admit their intellectual embarrassment and instead continue to argue that it’s all about blockchain and DeFi (decentralized finance). They want to explain to you why they got it right and you got it wrong, so they’ve lost everything and you’re keeping your money safe at JPMorgan. If only there was such a thing as a giant thermometer to measure these arrogant promoters, when they claim to be smarter than you, they believe in something that is best used as an unearned ransom. But this period is about to end. It will certainly be fought, as we find its representatives defending themselves with such self-serving and patently bogus-sounding contrived arguments that even neutral minds revolt and revolt. The money maker that is Robinhood burns gently against the crypto napalm. Pro-cryptocurrency interests cannot go quietly because they will empty the coffers of crypto banks and cause waves of bankruptcies; The $34 billion we know was destroyed by the disgraced ex-boss of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, backed almost everything. We are frustrated with the due diligence done by many who should know better, only a few institutions don’t write down their investments with explanations or lack thereof. Here’s the problem: If everything disappears — cryptocurrency and all the institutions that support it — the money left over won’t help propel stock prices higher. It was once a magnet for several trillion dollars. Now I wonder if there is $400 billion for the whole building? All this reminds me of a line from Beau Geste where the two main characters are attacked: “You will do your duty better dead than you have ever seen alive.” The biggest weapons are probably canceled as you speak, dual cads. They’ll tell us we’re crazy not to believe in blockchain, as if it’s anything but lies and blunders. Here’s my take: Cryptocurrency and the Robinhood dollar deal may not make enough money to boost the stock. There isn’t enough in these embers to do anything but marvel at how much there used to be and how little bankruptcy there is. No matter how many hearings there are, we will never know all the guilt behind those in Congress and those who oppose Chairman Gary Gensler at the Securities and Exchange Commission. He came to CNBC specifically to warn about fake coins and institutions that give you huge returns compared to real bank cash. Self-serving cryptocurrency players have criticized the SEC. They want to school Gensler and let him know that he can only go so far before running into all the well-heeled institutions and their secret paid supporters. The horror! The horror! But where else will the money come from? Unlike the chimerical trillions that have become thin cryptocurrency air, the fuel for the endowment will come from four stocks worth a combined $6 trillion: Apple ( AAPL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ), and Amazon ( AMZN ). There’s simply too much money in these names to push us higher, or at least as high as we can go after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting this week. But I think some of the investor money will be moved to the stocks of the companies with the most buybacks. These are companies that don’t have enough reserves to handle all the money that will flood in. The money in these four stocks will be taken out, kicking and screaming, until the valuations are on the ground – better and more S-like than Meta Platforms (META). & P as they discover that they are mortal. Until then, the rally cannot begin in earnest. Are these assessments feasible? It’s happening as you read this. Of course, progress has another enemy, and it’s a powerful one: The 4.5% yield on 2-year Treasuries is outrageous in a market where anything north of 4% in stocks is tied to a sharp decline in oil. However, we are holding on to oils, betting that they will remain well above market prices when Russia fails to tap its endless reserves and China becomes voracious after reopening. I think we will win. We’ll hold Apple ( AAPL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ), and Amazon even though we’ve raised them higher. Their landing will be painful. If we didn’t sell some, it would be late game. But I suspect there will be more pain. Why take it? Because these companies still have value, although it won’t show until the sale is over, and we don’t know when that will happen. It’s too risky to go now, although Apple could see a $120 drop and Microsoft a 10-point drop. Amazon and Alphabet are managing their own destinies by downsizing. The good news? The sell-off may end after the Fed’s meeting. The bad news: If so, there won’t be enough rocket fuel. The big four must spend a minimum of one trillion to gain more power. I think that will happen over time. Which will be a brutal week until the start of the transfer. Hold on to what you have, but be prepared to be lifted by stocks with the strongest buybacks. This is where the collection is most important. (See here for a complete list of stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll receive trade alerts before Jim trades. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION ABOVE IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY ALONG WITH OUR INFORMATION. NO FIDUCIARY OWNERSHIP OR DUTIES ARE OR CREATE BY YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO RESULTS OR PROFITS ARE GUARANTEED.
Satya Nadella, chief executive officer of Microsoft Corp., during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022. Nadella gave a keynote speech at the event organized by the company’s Korean division.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Start a fire – but not destroy the market with it.
That’s the goal right now. It’s not as easy as in the famous Jack London short story (“Too Build a Fire”), in the end, the survivors make a profit rather than freeze to death in their sleep.
At the beginning of this decade, we saw the rise Robinhood (HOOD) and the division of investments from serious to ephemeral. These days, Robinhood looks like one giant bonfire of young people’s money. The gamification concept was real and the investor exodus was tumultuous – resulting in ridiculous self-immolation. GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and meme stocks. Those fighting the trend have left Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from angry mobs trying to wildly outsell sellers. None of these clowns.