Asia-Pacific markets, CPI data, Fed, Hang Seng Index

Southeast Asian markets will follow a bungee jump-like trajectory next year – falling sharply before rebounding in the second half of 2023, JPMorgan wrote in a report.

Analysts led by Rajiv Batra write that it is “characterized by a sharp decline, followed by a rapid rise to highs (a bear market rally) and eventually another decline until markets bottom out.”

They attributed it to the weakening of purchasing power, the decrease of savings and the increase in the cost of borrowing against the backdrop of monetary policy tightening.

Additionally, JPMorgan predicts that the MSCI ASEAN Index will “retest this year’s lows and potentially decline further” in the first half of 2023 as tightening financial conditions and weakening foreign demand, among other factors.

The MSCI ASEAN index fell 22% in October from its February peak, but rebounded 10%.

– Lee Yingshan

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicts that inflation will “decline significantly” by the end of next year, barring an “unexpected shock”.

In an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” Yellen justified her optimism on lower transportation costs and lower gas prices.

However, he warned that downside risks remained and the economy was still prone to shocks. But he said this could be buffered by a “very healthy” banking system, as well as business and household sectors.

“There is a risk of a recession. But in my opinion, it’s certainly not something important to bring down inflation.”

The final reading for the US consumer price index is expected on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the index to rise 0.3% in November. Earlier, the consumer price index rose less than expected in October. Although the rate of inflation has fallen, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

– Lee Yingshan

Oil prices rallied more than a dollar amid renewed optimism in China and Moscow’s threat to cut oil output in response to price restrictions on Russian crude exports.

Brent crude futures rose 1.53% or $1.11 to $72.13 a barrel in early Asian hours, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.29% or $77.08 a barrel.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek on Friday that Russia “simply will not sell” to Western countries that impose price caps on Russian oil, Reuters reported.

– Lee Yingshan

According to Ben Davis, a mining analyst at Liberum Capital, shares of the little-known miner in London will rise by 50%.

The company, which mines metals such as platinum, palladium and chromium, also offers an 8% dividend yield.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

– Ganesh Rao

Dan Niles’ Satori Fund is beating the market this year. He shares what’s behind the outperformance and how to trade the market on bearish counters.

Pro subscribers can read more here.

– Xavier Ong

Stock futures edged lower during the first hour of trading. Dow futures were down about 50 points, or about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.3%.

– Jesse Pound

The major averages fell on Friday to snap a losing week for Wall Street, snapping a two-week winning streak.

Here are the key stats from last week:

• The Dow fell 2.77%, its worst stretch since September.
• The S&P 500 lost 3.37%, its worst stretch since September.
• The Nasdaq composite fell 3.99%, posting its worst weekly stretch in a month.
• The Russell 2000 fell 5.08%, marking the worst week for small caps since September.
• All 11 sectors were negative for the week, leading to lower energy.

– Jesse Pound, Christopher Hayes