East Bay real estate was a tale of two markets in 2022. The year began as a continuation of the trends of 2021: sellers with all the power, desperate buyers, excessive asking prices and numerous offers. But in the middle of the year, everything began to change, and now, in most cases, the power has passed to buyers.
2021 has been a record-breaking year for East Bay real estate. Berkeley and Oakland both hit all-time median sales prices of $1.6 million and $1.1 million, respectively, up more than 13% from 2020. Things looked equally rosy for East Bay sellers in the first half of 2022. At the end of April, “Red Oak properties received an average of six offers each, which is the highest we’ve seen in over a year,” said real estate agent Simone Koga. “Offers averaged 27% over list price, the highest we’ve ever recorded. “21% of homes received offers worth at least $500,000, which is 15 percentage points higher than the same period last year.”
By May, the market had changed. Even perennially popular areas like Piedmont and Berkeley have felt the oversupply cool significantly.
East Bay buyers are still out there, but they’re pickier
But just because people weren’t willing or able to oversell a house doesn’t mean there weren’t buyers willing to buy it.
“The Perfect 10 homes are selling very well with multiple offers and often double-digit percentages over list price,” real estate agent Caitlin Crawford of Grubb Company told SFGATE. “Homes with special handicaps—homes on busy streets, entertaining layouts, no off-street parking and/or in need of renovations—take longer to sell and require price reductions. Some just don’t sell. After years of being hammered by local market trends, buyers have become more careful in how they search for homes and structure their offers.”
The East Bay’s continued high demand may partly reflect San Francisco’s 2022 out-migration trend: The American Housing Survey, released in October, found that more San Franciscans plan to leave their city than any other U.S. city, but most are not. it doesn’t go far. “Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda and Piedmont were the cities my clients moved to the most,” said Crawford, who often works with buyers who move from San Francisco to the East Bay.
Golden Gate Sotheby’s International’s Herman Chan said Oakland and Berkeley were always extremely popular with SF transplants, but “since the pandemic, cities like Piedmont and Alameda, with their excellent schools and better safety statistics, have exploded.”
Record home sales in four of the most in-demand East Bay markets in 2022 give us more insight into the region’s year in real estate.
Built in 1918, this Tudor mansion was sold in Piedmont in 2022 for $12 million.
Google StreetviewPiedmont: 456 Wildwood Ave.
Built in 1918, this Tudor mansion is palatial on almost 10,000 square feet, with old-world herringbone floors, a spiral staircase, leaded-glass French doors, and a wine cellar. The 0.66-acre lot features an oversized master suite, plus a three-car garage, second-level living room, greenhouse, lawn, patio and pool.
Despite its apparent magnificence, this luxury abode did not sell for $13 million, reflecting the general decline in demand for high-end homes in San Francisco. 44 days after listing, this home sold for $12 million.
The luxury market can behave differently than the more affordable market, and Crawford noted that these homes are not representative of the overall picture in the East Bay in 2022, with some homes actually fetching extreme asking prices.
“The cases where we’ve seen items sell for 40, 50, even 60% over asking price have generally been in the high $900,000 to $2 million range,” Crawford said.
A classic Spanish-style home, this Berkeley residence sits on nearly a full acre lot in the highly desirable Claremont neighborhood. It sold off the market for $8.5 million.
Google StreetviewBerkeley: 22 Roble Road
A classic Spanish-style home, this abode sits on nearly a full acre in Berkeley’s highly desirable Claremont neighborhood. Its 8,615-square-foot interior has four bedrooms and seven and a half bathrooms. The tiling, arched windows and ironwork we expect from Spanish design have all been retained and the exterior offers lawns, gardens and patios with a classic courtyard setting.
According to its sales records, the property appears to be a victim of a changing market. Records show it sold in early 2021 for $12 million, before being taken off the market twice that year (the last recorded price was $10 million). It was briefly listed on the MLS for $8.9 million before being sold off the market this year for $8.5 million.
This renovated Oakland home was listed for $5.3 million and later sold for $5.5 million.
Google StreetviewOakland: 6133 Estates
Built in the 1930s, this estate-style property has been remodeled for modern living and features six bedrooms and five bathrooms set on a hill overlooking a panoramic view of San Francisco Bay. There are three separate office areas, a lounge and a wine cellar. The property also has a separate, one bedroom, one bathroom cottage of less than 600 square feet. These buildings combine swimming pool, gardens, lawn and outdoor living areas on 0.61 hectares.
This home has only been on the market for 12 days. After selling for $5.3 million, it sold for $5.5 million, making it the only home on the top-selling list to exceed its final bid price.
This Alameda property went off the market in May 2022 for $3.5 million.
Google StreetviewAlameda: 2961 Southwood Drive
As the top selling property in Berkeley, this one went off the market in May for $3.5 million. 2961 Southwood Drive is a 2,904 square foot home on a 5,715 square foot lot with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. It has two floors and an unfinished basement. Property records have us wishing for a time machine: Before its sale in 2022, it last sold in 1979 for $106,000.
What’s in store for 2023?
“We will continue to transition to a more balanced market where buyers have a seat at the negotiating table, which we experienced in the second half of 2022,” Crawford said.
That said, sellers still have a lot to celebrate. “Most sellers who have owned for at least three years will still make money on their investment if they choose to sell in 2023,” he said.