Cryptocurrency markets show no signs of volatility heading into the year-end holiday season. This suggests that both bulls and bears are playing it safe and not making big bets due to uncertainty about the next directional move. This indecisive phase is unlikely to last long, as periods of low volatility are generally accompanied by increases in volatility.
Willy Woo, founder of chain analytics resource Woobull, expects the duration of the current bear market to be “longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
According to Forbes, the cryptocurrency winter has resulted in a loss of more than $116 billion in the personal capital of 17 investors and founders in the cryptocurrency space. The carnage was so fierce that 10 investors were removed from the list of crypto billionaires.
Could the bear market deepen or is it showing signs of starting a relief rally? Let’s look at Bitcoin (BTC) charts and select altcoins to study.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $16,929 for the past few days. This shows that the bears are holding the level but the bulls are not giving up yet.
This period of calm is unlikely to last long, and the BTC/Tether (USDT) pair may soon witness a range extension. In general, it is difficult to predict the direction of the break, so it is better to wait for the pair to make a decisive move before starting directional bets.
If the price breaks above the moving averages, a rally towards the upper resistance at $18,388 is more likely. This level could again act as a major barrier, but if the bulls force their way through, momentum could pick up and the pair could rise to $20,000.
On the downside, a break below $16,256 could signal that the bears are in control. Sellers will then try to push the pair down to the vital support level at $15,476.
On the 4-hour chart, both moving averages have flattened and the relative strength index (RSI) is slightly below the center. This suggests acting on scope in the near term. The limits of the range could be $17,061 on the top and $16,256 on the bottom.
A break above $17,061 would indicate that the bulls have topped out and could begin a short-term rally. On the other hand, a break below $16,256 would indicate that the bears are strengthening their position.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA of $1,228 for the past few days. This suggests that traders are waiting for a break above this overhead resistance.
The 20-day EMA is flattening and the RSI is slightly below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. The ETH/USDT pair could attract more buying if the bulls break above the moving averages. The pair may then rise to $1,352 and further to the lower trend line. This level can again act as a huge resistance.
Conversely, if the price fails to break above the moving averages, a few short-term traders may sell aggressively. This could pull the price to a strong support at $1,150. If this level allows, the head and shoulders pattern can be completed. This could clear the way for a potential downside to $1,075 and then $948.
The 4-hour chart shows that the recovery is facing resistance in the zone between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,227 and the 50% retracement level of $1,251. If the price breaks down and breaks below $1,180, the pair may retest the significant support at $1,150.
Conversely, if the price rises and breaks above $1,251, the rally could reach the 61.8% retracement level at $1,275. If the bulls can overcome this barrier, the pair could complete a 100% retracement and rise to $1,352.
TON/USDT
Toncoin (TON) has been consolidating in an uptrend for the past few days. Although the bears stopped the advance at $2.90, a small positive is that the bulls did not give up much ground. It suggests shopping.
A rising 20-day EMA of $2.25 and an RSI in positive territory suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers push the price above $2.50, the TON/USDT pair could rise to $2.65 and then retest $2.90.
The bears may have other plans as they will try to push the price below the 20-day EMA and strengthen their position. There is minor support at $2.15, but if that doesn’t hold, the pair could fall to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.91.
The pair formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This indicates indecision between bulls and bears. Flat moving averages and RSI near the midpoint also give no one a clear advantage.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the resistance line of the triangle. This could start a rally to $2.90. If this level scales, the upside could reach the pattern target of $3.24.
If the price breaks below the 50-SMA or the resistance line of the triangle, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay within the triangle. A break below the support line could indicate that the bears are back in control.
Related: The 5 most important regulatory developments for cryptocurrency in 2022
XMR/USDT
Monero (XMR) failed to break above the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern in the last few days, but a positive sign is that the bulls are trying to hold the price above the 50-day SMA at $140.
The moving averages have flattened and the RSI is near the center. This indicates that there is a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA of $144, buyers will try to take advantage by pushing the XMR/USDT pair above the wedge. If this happens, the pair could rise to $174. A break above this level could signal a potential trend reversal.
On the other hand, if the price falls below $138, the advantage may tilt in favor of the bears. Then a pair can drop as low as $125.
The pair has regained strong support at $138.50 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair can advance to the descent line, where the bears can once again mount a strong defense.
If the price turns below the descending line, the bears will try to pull the pair up to $138.50. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the near term, as a break below it could complete a descending triangle pattern. The pair may then fall to $132 and further to the $124 target.
On the upside, a break above the bearish trendline could invalidate bearish settings and clear the way for a possible rally to $153.
OCD/USDT
Centralized Cryptocurrency exchanges have been in the eye of the storm since the collapse of FTX, but OKB ( OKB ) is close to completing a bullish reversal pattern. This is the reason why it was selected for the list.
The OKB/USDT pair has formed a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that will be completed on the break and close above $23.22. Both moving averages are rising and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If the price breaks above the psychological level of $25, the pair can start with a new rally to $28 and then to $31. The pattern target of the reversal formation is $36. If the price breaks below the current level and falls below the moving averages, this positive opinion may be invalidated. The pair can then drop to $17.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This bullish adjustment will be completed with a break and close above $24.15. If this happens, the pair could start a new uptrend towards the $31 pattern target.
Alternatively, if the price breaks down and breaks below the triangle, this will invalidate the bullish setup. This can cause aggressive buyers who may have held long positions to stall on the eve of a breakout. The pair may then drop to $20.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action involves risk and readers should do their own research before making a decision.