Can we predict the future?
Of course not.
Can we understand the socio-economic forces shaping the future?
Yes, but it takes some digging.
When you analyze the historical literature, you see that history gives us many examples of many disruptive periods – usually called Revolutions. The more you sample, the clearer the patterns become.
This article places Bitcoin in the context of the radical paradigm shifts we’ve seen throughout history, reveals the preconditions that led to them, and gives us a new lens that goes well beyond the current price of the asset.
There is a massive erosion of trust in our central institutions that cannot be overcome
The failures of central institutions have never been more front and center. Never before have so many people openly questioned the competence and character of elected officials. This is too prominent to be ignored.
As described by David Potter, professor of Greek and Roman history at the University of Michigan in Disruption: Why Things Change, the “essential characteristics of historical disruption” include the following elements:
- Major losses of trust in the central institutions of society
- Previously fringe ideas made their way to the center of the socio-economic order
- A strong, committed group of leaders driving change
Let’s apply some historical context to the Peaceful Bitcoin Revolution, shall we?
Constantine’s Disruption in Ancient Rome
Many do not know that Constantine was one of the main reasons behind the conversion of the Roman Empire to Christianity in the 4th century.
Hundreds of years ago, the empire suffered from episodes of disease, military failures, and devastating inflation. Not surprisingly, most leaders have solved these problems by trying to make old, outdated systems work better. These centuries of simmering difficulties have left Rome in a state of fertile ground for socio-economic disruption:
- Citizens lost faith in the imperial government
- The previously fringe idea of Christianity found its way to the center of the political order
- Constantine created a unified leadership team that initiated change to grow their community
Knowing that religious persecution would not work, Constantine encouraged people to change their way of thinking. By introducing Christian ideologies, he opened up avenues of advancement for all, not just the wealthy elite. The idea that anyone, regardless of their status in society, could achieve moral elevation in God’s eyes was considered extremely unusual at the time.
Bringing Christianity to the fore, Constantine permanently restructured the empire, breaking with outdated ideas about religious authority with a new model that made the masses feel that society was evolving toward something better.
But what ultimately distinguished Constantine from his predecessors was that he was very clear in his choice of citizens. The reason his message resonated so deeply with ordinary people is that it empowered them to decide whether to join or not.
Martin Luther’s disruption of the Catholic Church started the Protestant Reformation
Fast forward a little over a millennium later, and Martin Luther famously paints the 95 theses on the door of a church in Wittenberg, Germany. Pages argued that the church’s Catholic teachings and selfish overspending on indulgences were not good for the people.
The idea that there was an intellectual world outside the church is what prompted the Protestant Reformation to sweep Europe in the 1500s. Similarly, today Satoshi’s discovery allows people to understand that an entire monetary system can exist outside of the state.
The same psychology applies to Roger Banister breaking the “Four Minute Mile Barrier.” After years of being considered “impossible”, the record was suddenly possible. Since 1954, thousands of people have run a four-minute mile.
The French Revolution shows us how violent disturbances fail
There is no better example of reform failure than Maximilien Robespierre’s Reign of Terror during the French Revolution. His regime’s approach was to enforce “virtuous behavior” under the threat of execution by guillotine. He has already made the choice of the citizens.
Apart from violence, Robespierre offered no lasting alternative to the existing system. Contrast this with Bitcoin’s non-violent features, such as removing the vectors through which governments can inflict more violence on their own people by financing wars through inflation.
As governments around the world fail to adapt to new conditions and offer different versions of the same old, dysfunctional systems (CBDC pilot projects), Bitcoin’s job is to sit there like a rock and offer the world a viable, politically open system. is to continue. neutral alternative.
First of all, choice This is what makes Bitcoin highly likely to break even
Every successful historical example we’ve looked at has one common denominator: the freedom to choose which side of the spectrum you’re on.
For example, the stark difference between Constantine and Robespierre was that society was given the choice to choose or not with impunity. Unlike Robespierre, Constantine scrapped the failing systems and replaced them with a stronger structure. Christianity’s entry into Roman society was largely based on inclusiveness and education rather than hatred and violence.
The first socio-economic disruption based on mistrust in history
As we have seen throughout history, the solution to these losses of trust in centralized institutions has been to place that trust in another centralized institution. Satoshi used a completely different Game Theory to find a solution that didn’t require trust in a central authority to begin with.
Instead of relying on a different fallible human product to enforce new rules, Bitcoin uses non-corruptible distributed software to enforce predefined consensus parameters. Simply put, Bitcoin is the sound money that humanity desperately needs – and that’s it.
Thus, we see the emergence of a new Digital Anti-Violence Authority, creating a space ripe for Bitcoin to fundamentally redefine the distribution of financial power in our world.
Time will tell how this will unfold. We have exciting times ahead, that’s for sure.
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