Is it too early to talk about Bitcoin at $150,000?

Right now, most investors will be grateful Bitcoin (BTC 4.12%) prices will reach $20,000. The Spectacular Crash of the Cryptocurrency Exchange FTX It lowered the price of Bitcoin to $16,000. And some traders are now suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $15,000 or lower before seeing $20,000 again.

So it’s interesting that California-based crypto fund Pantera Capital has revealed a ridiculously high price target of $149,000 for Bitcoin at first glance. According to Pantera Capital, the single catalyst that has the potential to push Bitcoin significantly higher in the near future is the next Bitcoin halving scheduled for March 2024. But how realistic is this price target?

Significance of Bitcoin Halving

With each Bitcoin halving, the reward for mining a new block on the Bitcoin blockchain is halved. Today, for example, Bitcoin miners receive 6.25 bitcoins every time they successfully mine a new block. When the next Bitcoin halving takes place in March 2024, the reward size will drop to 3,125 bitcoins. All of this is algorithmically controlled, ensuring that Bitcoin miners around the world know exactly when this halving event will occur.

Image source: Getty Images.

It also ensures that investors around the world know exactly when it will happen, and that’s what makes the halving event so special. Three Bitcoin halvings have occurred in the past (2012, 2016, and 2020), and each followed a similar pattern: There is a bottom in the Bitcoin market about 15 months before the halving, followed by a gradual rise. the price of bitcoin goes to halve and then goes up massively in price for about 15 months.

Road to $149,000

So if you apply the same logic to the next Bitcoin halving in 2024, then we should expect a similar rise for Bitcoin. By running the numbers, Pantera Capital calculated that by the end of November, bitcoin would see a dip, a gradual recovery through 2023 and early 2024, and then a big bang. This is based on modeling previous Bitcoin halving events and then extrapolating forward.

According to Pantera Capital, Bitcoin typically bottoms 477 days before the halving and then peaks in a bull market about 480 days after the halving. Even if you don’t feel bullish on Bitcoin, you have to admit that there’s a nice symmetry to it all. Pantera Capital now predicts that Bitcoin will rise to $36,000 by March 2024 and then $149,000.

Warnings and warnings

The big caveat here, of course, is that past performance does not guarantee future performance. Just because something happened three times in the past doesn’t mean it will happen again. Three events is still a very small sample, and the price of Bitcoin is so volatile that we really don’t know what will happen in the future. Some of the smartest investors in the world are convinced that Bitcoin will go to zero. So don’t go out and bet your house on another Bitcoin rally.

Take a closer look at 2024

However, the Great Bitcoin Halving of 2024 could be the big story uniting cryptocurrency investors around the world. In a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, crypto investors will think they need to get in early to take advantage of the halving, so they’ll buy Bitcoin while it’s still trading below $20,000. This in turn will push Bitcoin even higher. As more investors see this happening, they will start buying too, leading to further momentum. Finally, when we reach 2024, Bitcoin will follow the exact trajectory the model predicts.

But then what? Remember what happened this year Ethereum, and the big storyline — The Consolidation — promised to unite crypto investors around the world. Everyone was excited that this could be a truly defining moment for crypto, and many predicted that Ethereum would skyrocket in value. So what did we get? Ethereum is still down more than 70% in the last 12 months, and some investors are warning that Ethereum could fall below $1,000 from its current $1,200 level.

So take every Bitcoin projection with a grain of salt and do your own due diligence. There is room for hope that Bitcoin will rise in the coming years, but don’t be fooled by anyone who promises that another massive Bitcoin rally is bound to happen anytime soon.

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