No, Binance is not off the SWIFT network, and even as storm clouds gather, bitcoin remains largely unaffected.

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. has a disclosure and ethics policy.

Bitcoin continues to show remarkable resilience in the face of one negative event after another in the cryptocurrency space. However, storm clouds continue to gather, suggesting that Bitcoin’s current rally may be short-lived.

First, Genesis rocked the cryptosphere earlier this week when it officially entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US. As part of the bankruptcy filing, Genesis disclosed 100,000 creditors and aggregate liabilities ranging from $1.2 billion to $11 billion, including a $769.5 million loan from Gemini.

Of course, Genesis’ lending arm, formally known as Genesis Global Capital, announced in November 2022 that $175 million was trapped in the now-defunct FTX exchange. Concurrent with this announcement, Genesis Global Capital seized the funds of 340,000 Gemini Earn users and suspended all loan originations and redemptions. As an upgrade, under Gemini’s Earn program, users can lend their crypto holdings to Genesis to earn interest. Of course, the SEC recently took a dim view of this program, accusing Genesis and Gemini of essentially offering “unregistered securities.” Despite additional vectors of contagion stemming from Genesis’ bankruptcy, Bitcoin remained largely unaffected.

Then, yesterday, rumors spread like wildfire that Binance had been disconnected from SWIFT, the global banking messaging service.

However, Binance soon clarified that Signature bank will only handle cryptocurrency transactions of $100,000 or more in the future, excluding the vast majority of retail customers. Nevertheless, Binance’s access to the SWIFT network remains intact:

“Signature Bank, one of our fiat banking partners, has advised that starting February 1, 2023, they will no longer support any of their cryptocurrency customers with trading amounts of less than $100,000. This is the case for all of their cryptocurrency exchange customers. As a result, some individual users They will not be able to use SWIFT bank transfers to buy or sell cryptocurrency for USD for less than USD 100,000.”

Since Signature Bank is a major financial institution serving the cryptocurrency space, the negative effects of this move on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies cannot be denied.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin showed only a muted reaction to this development and is now trading at $22,740 from a recent peak of $23,362. However, we believe more weakness lies ahead.


25-delta put-call skew measures the implied volatility (indicator of demand) of 25-delta puts versus calls. As an upgrade, an in-the-money option has a delta of 50. Thus, 25-delta options have about a 25 percent chance of ending up in the money. The chart above shows bitcoin’s 180-day expiration curve for 25-delta options. Notice that the skew has just turned positive, indicating an increase in demand for put options. Also, note that the last time this measure had a positive reading was just before Bitcoin’s major low in April 2022. In our view, this is a compelling case for further downward price movement.

As Bitcoin rose this week, many market participants declared that a cyclical bottom was forming. We continued to express our doubts about this measure. While we expect Bitcoin to go lower in the first quarter of 2023, our belief will only be strengthened if the world’s leading cryptocurrency can experience an average loss of at least 84.5 percent in a bear market, which equates to $69,000. around $11,000 price level.

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