‘Oh my god, why am I not at the market?’ This forecaster says that investors will be shocked by what happens next.


Slower but higher rates and no Christmas this side. That was the message from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the central bank’s fourth straight rate hike. Losing investors appear poised to sell stocks on Thursday as yields edge higher.

Not everyone agrees with Powell. “The Fed is making a big policy mistake, and they’re going to screw something up. Interest rate hikes are enough. More is wrong,” Lamoureux & Co. says Yves Lamoureux, president of a macroeconomic research firm.

Weather forecast is also provided by us call of the dayEven if Powell throws a “short-term key into the engine,” bulls will be happy because he sees mid- to long-term years ahead for the stock.

This column last spoke with Lamoureux in March, when he announced the end of the trilogy of rolling bear markets he accurately predicted, beginning with the pandemic lows of 2020. In March, he predicted a new bull market extending into 2025, but now sees it extending into 2026 due to the “damage” seen.

He told MarketWatch in a recent interview that while bull market conditions don’t look good right now, “as we go higher and stocks are going higher.”

“People are so negative, it gives me more confidence than ever that I’m on the right side of things,” Lamoureux told MarketWatch. Also in March, he predicted that the 10-year Treasury yield would exceed 4%. The move came earlier than predicted, and he sees the cycle as complete and lower rates ahead, supporting stocks.

To be clear, Lamoureux keeps individual names, not indexes, and said May or June marks the bottom for many stocks that haven’t hit new lows, such as the Nasdaq Composite COMP.
or the S&P 500 SPX.
He purchased Robinhood HOOD stock trading software
in June, for example, and notes that since then it has recovered about 50% from those lows.

It also owns Netflix NFLX
and Roblox RBLX
He noted that sometimes these stocks also fall back from their lows at the beginning of summer.

“People have made the mistake of looking at an index of four or five big caps like Microsoft, Facebook, and they’ve been trapped. And they look at the Nasdaq and think we’ve made a new low. I look at individual stocks because those are the stocks I hold,” he said.

He says investors should stay away from the “popular large caps” that everyone wants to own. It prefers names that have leadership in their segment and have some value, such as Netflix, which it bought at about three times the sale price.

The problem investors now face “is that they don’t have the reflexes to sell,” the forecaster said. That’s crucial going forward, because if investors see a bull market through 2025, it could mark “a very important peak that won’t pass for the next 10 years.”

“So if you haven’t learned how to sell, the market will probably go sideways in 10 years,” and those types of markets are difficult for those accustomed to buying and holding, he said.

As for the high ride, Lamoureux says it will be “outright, faster than we’ve ever seen” because there’s a ton of cash out there. “I think it makes people think, ‘Oh my God, why am I not in the market?’ will say.

As for stock picks, Lamoureux remains a fan of Robinhood and, of earlier note, Bakkt Holdings BKKT,
gradually “Visa, Matercard, Global Payments, Fiserv, etc. is building a huge crypto infrastructure for companies like

Lamoureux has two endpoints. First, it is turning bearish on the USD after a bullish run since 2014. Dollar weakness, which will be good for stocks and cryptocurrencies, is due to the fact that the United States produces its own oil and does not require oil to be exported. dollar should be paid for that commodity.

Lamoureux & Co.

According to him, a weak dollar will push gold up to $4,000 by 2028. “I think we’re going to see some rough waters in 2026, 2027, and I think gold will still be able to go up because people will see it as a really safe haven,” he said.

Read: What’s next for the markets after the Fed’s fourth consecutive jumbo rate hike?

Markets

MarketWatch

Losses for stock futures YM00

ES00

NQ00
deepens with two-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
The dollar hit its highest level since 2007 along with the DXY.
Oil prices CL

BRN00
and gold GC00
they are under pressure. Hang Sang HK:HSI from Hong Kong
It fell 3% leading to losses across Asia.

After the Fed, Norway’s central bank raised its key rate by a smaller-than-expected 25 basis points, while the Bank of England raised its key rate by 75 basis points to 3%, the biggest move in 30 years. The pound eased slightly on that, but was still down about 1.3%.

Buzz

Better-than-expected QSR results from parent Burger King Restaurant Brands
And Moderna MRNA is raising shares
Earnings fell 12% after falling well short of forecasts and Peloton PTON
decreased by nearly 20% due to a weak holiday forecast.

We will hear from Coinbase COIN after closing,
Starbucks SBUX,
PayPal PYPL
and DoorDash DASH
among a great many others.

Qualcomm QCOM among those reporting on Tuesday
The chip fell more than 7% in the premarket after a weak outlook entering. Roku ROKU
20% off after the streaming service’s positive results, but concerns over holiday disappointment and advertising budgets. Ebay EBAY
and Etsy ETSY
WWE is rising along with WWE following the respective results
and Zillow Z.

Morgan Stanley MS
is reportedly preparing for global layoffs as deals slow. And Elon Musk is expected to lay off half of his Twitter staff, possibly as soon as Friday.

The day before the payrolls data, weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m., along with the trade deficit, third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs. Supply Management Institute services index and factory orders are both due by 10am

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