If the rest of the world simply did what was expected of it, we’d have a decent stock market with less inflation and more prosperity. It’s just not the case at the moment. We’re in for a strong seasonal period – that’s for sure. At least now we have good retail from the resurrected mall stores. It’s a bit of a brick-and-mortar surprise, especially among the more irregular clothing companies. Stocks seem to be under control, and that’s enough to get investors excited. I prefer to see strong sales as a reason to buy. But given many worry about a recession, lower reserves mean less debt and less stimulus. Unless you’re talking about Bed Bath & Beyond’s ( BBBY ) low inventory, it may have more to do with a lack of credit than a lot of clarity. What confuses us is more about the actions of our allies and, as we see it, our enemies. Let’s start with China. Here is a country treating Covid-19 like Captain Voyage, the deadly strain of flu that wiped out most of the world’s population in Stephen King’s apocalyptic novel The Stand. It seemed logical and rational that once President Xi Jinping became president forever, his country would be free to end its frenzy of pretending that a zero-Covid strategy could work. What else did he need? Now we’re really starting to wonder about Si’s ultimate plan. There is no scientist worth his salt who says we can actually stop the infection – even with a total lockdown. Our body simply cannot produce immunity. We have the next best thing, a vaccine that is almost 100% good at making it so you don’t get real sick, and if you do, we have pills. But China is stuck in April 2020, and it looks like chaos could reign. Protesters and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday evening over the latest round of restrictions. As we learned from the violent labor protests at Apple ( AAPL ) and Foxconn’s flagship iPhone factory, not only is the manufacturing army crippled, but the consumption pillars are also severely lacking. Is there really no functioning engine and no checks in a government that doesn’t want it? It’s incredible how irrational everything is going and how isolated China really is. There was a time when you couldn’t imagine not manufacturing and selling products here in China. Now I think if any company still in China wants to do something for the US, they can just close and reopen somewhere else and just pay the price of more expensive labor. The double-edged sword of “we cheapen it and buy more because we are many” will rot if it continues; Surprisingly, President Xi either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care. How is this possible? How come he’s not watching iPhone City and thinking about Captain America? Maybe because he’s not a fan of Stephen King. His loss. Then there is Russia. A major land war somehow slipped off the front pages as the humanitarian crisis intensified. The Russians were able to start the process of appeasement through a cold-blooded France, and by deceiving the United States, they did not give the Ukrainians what they needed. just Patriot missiles to stop the endless missiles raining hell down on people. There is no peace in this war. Only silence in the coverage of this war. The fact that President Joe Biden is not done with Europe, keeping allies together and offering more aid to the Ukrainians is a sign that he is happy with the status quo. Given that the status quo means crazy Russian President Vladimir Putin wins. We’re not dealing with Joseph Stalin here, the US with an army of 28 million, equipped with Putin’s latest weaponry, has nuclear weapons, but guarantees the destruction of his own country if he uses them. There is no better time than to threaten allies with isolating Russia from everything and even cutting off oil from the country. But this is not happening. It just doesn’t make sense. If the West showed united strength, violence could be abolished and a new order of peace and prosperity could emerge. In the US, we have our own versions of irrationality. We have a possible rail strike because of a deal that President Biden made mostly for the unions and now he’s not a part of. We had one in 1992 and Congress quickly stepped in and it lasted two days. This time it should not go that far, but in the meantime, the irrationality of the strike does not surprise anyone. We expect irrationality from Washington. Finally, there is crypto irrationality. This is the most difficult of all. What is really going on in this world? Let’s start with a simpler question: Does it matter? Is it itchy? How much is lost? Who lost? Will it hurt purchasing power? Were those who didn’t mind shopping at Best Buy ( BBY ) or Dick’s ( DKS ) with great orders the losers in crypto? Were they the ones who bought Deere (DE) equipment to trim their lawns or do heavy construction work? We don’t know these people, and we don’t know the impact of their loss on our economy, because it’s illogical to love and root for any safety net after a century of gratitude. If companies don’t want to hire like they used to and the hiring freeze doesn’t turn into layoffs, unless things get so irrational, there’s too much irrationality to go on a big rally. Then, and only then, will irrationality, paradoxically, lead to higher stock prices. The Federal Reserve will only accept that the United States is strong. That alone will finally put downward pressure on prices due to the end of supply chain problems and the onset of real fear about the future as talk of reduced bonuses and layoffs after Christmas become headline news. Good – meaning very hot – still bad for stocks. But is less better? As irrationality from around the world sweeps through Wall Street, the bulls should hope so. (See here for a complete list of stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll receive trade alerts before Jim trades. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION ABOVE IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY ALONG WITH OUR INFORMATION. NO FIDUCIARY ENTITY OR DUTIES ARE OR WILL BE CREATED BY YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO RESULTS OR PROFITS ARE GUARANTEED.
Only a few vehicles, including two medical workers, pass through Beijing’s central business district on November 23, 2022, as the area is announced to tighten Covid surveillance.
Kevin Fryer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
If the rest of the world simply did what was expected of it, we’d have a decent stock market with less inflation and more prosperity. It’s just not the case at the moment.