S&P 500 (H)
On a higher term basis: A break below the 4629.25 line on 1/18/22 warned of decent pressure and rejected the medium-term uptrend we’ve been in since 3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we released the medium-term bearish reversal above, which brought pressure from the 4178.75 open to 676.75. These are PENDING. On a lower term basis: I warned of a possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75, which could lead to an upside correction with a minimum target of 3793.00 – we held this at 3502.00 low and pulled back to 678.00, removing the target.; but the higher time frame minimum target is 4190.50 – we just shyed away from this morning’s high of 4180.00. These are PENDING. I warned that if 4180.00 breaks higher, it will likely start a downward correction to cross 224.00 from the high – we have seen 391.50. This is PENDING. A trade above 3851.94 (-.37/hr) warned of renewed strength – we saw 157.50. A trade above the 3874.02 (-42/hour) level led to 99.25 strength. However, this day came out weak and ready for pressure. A decent trade below 3860.60 (+.28 on the hour starting at 9:30) would project this to the downside. A decent trade below 3839.54 (+19/hour) will also warn of decent pressure; but look for decent short cover here if we bounce back decently below and decently above.
On a higher term basis: I warned on 8/16/18 that a break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 was alerted with new strength. We saw $905.5. A break above $1,347.0 predicted this rally with a low of $80 and a high of $320 (+). We have raised $744.2. These are OFF LOOK. We had a big sell-off at $2,071.6-$93.2 at $2,089.2 and broke through $46.7. We went from $2079.6 to $456.6. These are ON LINE. In less time frame: A break above $1,641.2 (+1 tick/hour) added $245.2. A solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tick/hour) lifted it above a major formation – a minimum $80 gain is forecast. So far we have raised $206.9. A trade above $1,752.1 (-.3 ticks per hour) brought in $134.3 of the warned strength. We are in the third part of a higher timeframe bull structure. I would be aware of possible areas of exhaustion that I could contend with on the way up to $1,907.1-23.3, which are a combination of both lower and higher timeframe exhaustion. A break above $1,860.0 warned of new strength – we saw $26.4. A decent trade below $1,873.4 (+1 tick per hour starting at 5:00 AM) should provide decent pressure.
On a higher term basis: The decline on 11/10/21 made this a downtrend. I warned that the sale would have to go over $13,000 from $69,355 – of which we saw $54,430. We ran out of the bullish correction of the move down to $59,545 and broke above $44,620. We are down $36,080 from a close of $51,005. On a lower term basis: A trade below $34,830 put it below a significant bearish formation, projecting a low of $13,000 and a high of $35,000 (+). We won $19,905. We kept the exhaustion at $25,265-$495 and went high at $25,270 and broke through $10,345. We held a close at $22,630 and a high of $22,875 and a break above $7,950. A break below $18,065 (-5 ticks per hour) brought $3,140 of the warned pressure. These are PENDING. A break above $16,275-60 brought $1,165 strength. A trade above 17244 (+3/hour) warns of an ongoing high trade. A decent trade below where it came in at 17303 (+3 on the hour starting at 6:00 am) will cancel out the upside bias. A decent trade below $16,564 (-1.6 hours since 6:00 AM) will warn of decent pressure.
Crude Oil (WTI) (G)
On top of it macro basic: On 04/29/20 we missed a bullish reversal below – we saw (N) $115.13 from $15.37. We pulled out a big trendline at $55.15, which warned of significant strength. We saw $75.35. A break above $57.45 to $8.02 predicted this rise with a low of $56 and a high of $89 (+). We won $72.48. These are PENDING. On a shorter-term basis: A trade below $119.15 led to pressure at $49.07. A trade below $111.00 led to pressure at $40.92. A trade below $97.18 projected it to a maximum of $8.30 (+) lower. These are OFF HOLD. We held the low at $70.31 and moved up to $11.19 against a move below $83.34. Here it is ON LINE. We are in a bearish correction/trend against the move above $70.31, with the final area of potential exhaustion (if it is a correction) coming in at $72.70 – we basically held it at the $72.46 low and retreated $4.28 – which is very the potential to initiate a weekly bull structure. A decent trade below $76.79 would bring this down to $4.70 – we got $4.33 before briefly covering the low. I noted that we missed the medium-term bearish reversal from Wednesday, which warned of pressure. A decent trade above $76.60 would negate this and warn of new strength. A trade above $79.98 would predict a low of $8.40 and a high of $25.80 (+).
Natural Gas (G)
On top of it higher time frame: A trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure. I warned that a decent trade below 7188 would be a new sign of weakness – we broke out of the 3668 tick. NOTE: A trade below 5136-4993 lowers the 3-month low of $2.80, $5.30 (+) high – we traded low at $1,690. These are PENDING. If we pull back solidly above 5048-192, this will signal a solid high trade towards 7800 (+) for weeks. On top of it shorter term basis: A trade above 3733 (-8 tics/hour) issued a strength warning. A decent trade below where it came from at 3507 (starting at 8:00 am -8 tics/hour) should bring decent pressure.
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