Tesla Q4 earnings expectations • TechCrunch

Tesla’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 earnings are upon us, according to Yahoo Finance, with Wall Street expectations for the electric car maker to post $24.03 billion in revenue for the quarter and the stock to adjusted earnings per capita will be around $1.13. . If Tesla hits this revenue estimate, it would mark a record for the company and the slowest growth rate since the mid-2020s.

As usual, Tesla will share results on Wednesday after the market closes, and management will discuss earnings and answer analyst questions during a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.

The automaker is ending a tumultuous year that saw its stock price plunge 65%, from CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter distraction to fears of slowing sales in pandemic-hit China. Tesla is expected to address those concerns during tomorrow’s call, as well as recent car price cuts and missed Q4 delivery estimates.

In fact, so much has happened in Tesla-Land in the past few months that Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives said the upcoming earnings call and guidance comment “will be one of the most important moments in Tesla’s history. For Musk himself.”

Before we dive into our expectations for the call, Tesla shares closed Tuesday at $143.89, up more than 30% since the start of this month after losing two-thirds of their value since April 2022.

View from the mask

Musk doesn’t always go along with Tesla’s earnings calls — and, in fact, is busy defending himself in a lawsuit over claims he misled investors with his famous “funding secured” tweet in 2018 — but the CEO is expected to speak tomorrow. fear that the investor is not paying enough attention to Tesla after the Twitter takeover.

The executive went to court in November to defend his $56 billion Tesla pay package after a shareholder filed a lawsuit to overturn the deal, which he said was unfairly awarded to Musk, a “part-time CEO.”

Missed delivery estimates

During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, Musk promised Tesla an “epic end to the year.” The automaker set record vehicle sales and deliveries, but still missed its own and Wall Street estimates. Tesla delivered 405,278 vehicles in the fourth quarter, boosted by last-minute discounts on its Model Y and 3 vehicles in December. The Street was expecting 420,000 to 425,000 units to be delivered.

Analysts are likely to question the company’s miss, as the fourth quarter marked the third straight quarter in which the automaker failed to deliver as much as promised. Tesla may be called upon to provide more realistic estimates for 2023.

We may also see updated delivery and sales numbers for the fourth quarter when earnings are released.

Discounts on the price of the car

Earlier this month, Tesla cut the price of its long-range Model Y crossover (20% to $52,990) and Model 3 sedan (14% to $53,990) for US buyers. The vehicles’ new, lower base price qualifies them for a $7,500 federal tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was signed into law in August. Under the terms of the IRA, the limit is $55,000 for electric sedans and $80,000 for SUVs, pickups and vans.

Tesla also lowered the prices of the Model S sedan and Model X, which are still too expensive to qualify for the EV tax credit.

The latest price cuts mark at least the fourth time in the last few months that the automaker has offered a discount or credit on its vehicles. In October, Tesla announced price cuts of up to 9% for the Model 3 and Model Y in China, and earlier this month it cut prices by about 14%. The company also offered a $3,750 discount on the Model Y and 3s in the US and Canada in early December, then reduced it to $7,500 later in the month.

Investors have been unsympathetic to the price cuts, as they signal a decline in demand for the iconic EV. However, the price cuts actually increased the demand for cars. What investors will be hoping to gauge is whether the price cuts cut into Tesla’s margins too significantly. It may be too early to get those answers, but Tesla will likely provide some guidance.

Updates on new gigafactories

Tesla announced Tuesday plans to invest another $3.6 billion in its Nevada gigafactory, adding two new facilities dedicated to building battery cells and Tesla Semis. The automaker may discuss these plans further, such as when they hope to break ground on the facilities and start production.

The automaker said it has a multi-year plan to increase production by 50%, so analysts will want to hear about other new gigafactories. Tesla is reportedly planning to build a $10 billion gigafactory in Mexico, and the company is also nearing a deal to build factories in Indonesia.

More on Semi and Cybertruck

Tesla finally revealed the first production versions of its long-delayed electric Semi in December and delivered the first few of the 100 trucks Pepsi ordered in 2017. A number of high-profile companies, including Anheuser-Busch, Pepsi, Walmart and UPS have also secured Semis, so we can get some updates on production and when we can expect deliveries from those companies.

Tesla’s Cybertruck has also faced several delays, but Musk said in July that the company’s truck was on track to be released by the middle of this year. We look forward to further updates as well as new features over time. In September, Musk said the Cybertruck would be “waterproof enough to serve as a boat for a short time.”

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